Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Financial Performance and Positive Outlook: Confluent achieved its first non-GAAP profitable year in fiscal year 2024, with subscription revenue growing 26% to $922.1 million , and non-GAAP operating margin improving 10 percentage points to 2.9%. For fiscal year 2025, the company provided guidance ahead of expectations, projecting subscription revenue growth of approximately 21% to 22% to reach $1.117 billion to $1.121 billion , and expecting non-GAAP operating margin to improve to approximately 6%.
- Significant Strategic Partnerships Driving Growth: Confluent announced a major expansion of its strategic partnership with Databricks , integrating Confluent's data streaming platform with Databricks's data intelligence platform to empower real-time data for AI-driven decision making. Additionally, the company entered a multiyear strategic partnership with Jio Platforms Limited, expected to accelerate India's development of GenAI and next-generation applications. These partnerships extend Confluent's reach and present new growth opportunities.
- Successful Go-to-Market Transformation and Product Innovation: The transition to a consumption-based selling model has led to increased efficiency, with sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue improving by approximately 6 percentage points in 2024. The expansion of product offerings, including WarpStream and Tableflow, has helped penetrate new accounts, particularly in the large-scale digital native segment. Confluent's win rate against cloud service provider offerings and smaller start-ups remained well above 90% , and the company grew its $1 million-plus ARR customers by 23% to 194 customers , demonstrating strong market positioning and customer expansion.
- Net Revenue Retention Rate (NRR) has stabilized at 117% and has not increased, indicating that the anticipated boost in net expansion rates from go-to-market changes has not yet materialized.
- Fiscal year 2025 guidance indicates growth rates consistent with 2024, suggesting that despite investments in new products and strategies, growth is not accelerating as expected.
- Revenue contribution from new partnerships like Jio Platforms and Databricks is expected to be not material in the near term, implying limited immediate impact on revenue growth from these initiatives.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +22.5% (from $213.18M to $261.22M) | **Total Revenue increased by $48.04M due to revenue growth from expanded customer acquisition and higher subscription sales that built on the previous period's base. ** |
Operating Income (EBIT) | Shifted from +$84.68M to –$105.78M (declined by $190M) | **Despite higher revenue, Operating Income deteriorated dramatically as increased SG&A and R&D expenses, along with higher depreciation costs, overwhelmed operating efficiencies seen in the previous period. ** |
Net Income | Reversed from +$94.10M to –$88.05M | **Net Income moved from a strong positive result to a significant loss due to escalating operating costs and expense pressures that counterbalanced the revenue growth improvements from the prior period. ** |
Earnings Per Share (Basic) | Shifted from $0.30 to –$0.27 | **EPS declined by $0.57 as deteriorating net income and increased operating losses translated into negative earnings per share, reflecting the adverse cost impact compared to the previous quarter’s positive figure. ** |
Depreciation & Amortization | Increased by 59% (from $3.92M to $6.23M) | **Depreciation and Amortization surged due to higher capitalized internal-use software and increased property & equipment costs, building upon previous period investments that now incur greater non-cash charges. ** |
SG&A Expenses | Increased by 20% (from $153.86M to $184.55M) | **SG&A expenses rose driven by increased personnel costs, higher marketing and administrative spending—including overhead and acquisition-related expenses—further straining margins compared to Q4 2023. ** |
R&D Expenses | Grew by 32% (from $86.95M to $114.89M) | **R&D spending increased significantly due to an accelerated investment in innovation, with higher headcount, greater stock-based compensation, and additional acquisition-related costs, reinforcing growth ambitions from the earlier period. ** |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Subscription Revenue (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $245M to $246M, 21% growth | Expected to be in the range of $253M to $254M, 22% to 23% growth | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | Approximately 2% | Approximately 3% | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share (Quarterly) | Q1 2025 | $0.05 | $0.06 to $0.07 | raised |
Subscription Revenue (Annual) | FY 2025 | Expected to be in the range of $916.5M to $917.5M, 26% growth | Expected to be in the range of $1.117B to $1.121B, 21% to 22% growth | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (Annual) | FY 2025 | Approximately 2% | Approximately 6% | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income per Diluted Share (Annual) | FY 2025 | $0.25 | $0.35 | raised |
Free Cash Flow Margin (Annual) | FY 2025 | Between 0% to 1% | Approximately 6% | raised |
Cloud Subscription Revenue Mix (Annual) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected to see 1 point of increase each quarter, with a Q4 '25 exit at 59% to 60% | no prior guidance |
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
Financial Performance and Revenue Guidance | Q1, Q2, and Q3 discussions emphasized strong subscription revenue growth, improving operating and free cash flow margins, and clear revenue guidance targets ( in Q1, in Q2, in Q3). | Q4 highlights record subscription revenue, further margin improvements that exceeded guidance, and robust net income figures ( ). | Consistent strength and an upward shift in profitability metrics, reflecting bullish sentiment on performance as margin expansion builds on earlier robust growth. |
Consumption Transformation | Q1 launched the shift toward a consumption-based model ( ), Q2 detailed a near-complete rollout with pricing adjustments and accelerated customer acquisition ( ), and Q3 focused on landing high-quality customers to drive consumption ( ). | Q4 emphasizes the successful transformation with high-velocity customer expansion, refined sales incentives (e.g., tracking DSP components) and a strong pipeline ( ). | Maturing from an early rollout to demonstrated operational success, this initiative is increasingly seen as driving durable, efficient growth. |
Product Innovation and DSP Growth | Q1 introduced early-stage innovations like Flink and Table Flow ( ), Q2 underlined the expansion of platform capabilities and managed connectors ( ), and Q3 heralded a record level of product innovation with new offerings and acquisition of WarpStream ( ). | Q4 showcases a robust expansion with over 200 new features across DSP components, integrated product offerings (e.g., Tableflow GA) and strategic positioning of DSP as a major contributor to cloud revenue ( ). | Evolving from early experiments to a core revenue driver, product innovation is becoming even more integral to the company’s strategic positioning and future growth. |
Strategic Partnerships Expansion | Not mentioned in Q1, Q2 or Q3 calls. | Q4 introduces major expanded partnerships with Databricks and Jio Platforms to integrate real‐time data solutions and support AI-driven applications ( ). | A new and potentially transformative topic that expands market reach and strengthens the ecosystem, possibly having a large impact on future growth. |
Customer Growth, Retention, and Digital Native Segments | Q1 reported the largest sequential customer growth and strong high-value account expansion ( ); Q2 noted solid multiproduct adoption with some digital native volatility ( ); Q3 highlighted stabilized digital native consumption and robust retention metrics ( ). | Q4 reports significant overall customer growth (840 new customers), a strong NRR of 117%, and continued traction among digital native companies ( ). | Consistent robust growth with improving retention, while the digital native segment is recovering and increasingly adopting the platform, which further supports long‑term expansion. |
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) Trends | Q1 showed NRR targets between 120% to 125% with higher multiproduct retention ( ); Q2 noted NRR around 118% with some volatility ( ); Q3 reported a stable 117% NRR with minor declines ( ). | Q4 maintains an NRR of 117% combined with a gross retention rate above 90% ( ). | Steady performance across periods, with slight short-term dips but overall stability and expectation for improvement as consumption and multiproduct adoption drive retention upward. |
Generative AI Initiatives | Q1 introduced early Gen AI use cases through digital native projects ( ); Q2 provided detailed customer case studies exemplifying Gen AI impact ( ); Q3 hosted AI Day and launched an accelerator program, alongside deeper integration with OpenAI ( ). | Q4 expands on Gen AI with multiple AI-related projects, enhanced strategic partnerships (notably with Databricks) for real‑time AI decision-making, and streamlining of AI use cases across industries ( ). | Growing prominence and sophistication of Gen AI initiatives, building momentum from early case studies to strategic partnerships that could significantly boost future growth. |
Reduced Emphasis on Traditional Revenue Metrics | Q1 discussions already highlighted a shift away from RPO/CRPO in favor of consumption and subscription revenue measures ( ); no mention in Q2 and Q3. | Q4 continues this approach with the CFO noting that deferred revenue metrics aren’t the best indicators under the consumption model ( ). | A consistent strategic repositioning away from traditional revenue metrics towards consumption-based indicators, reinforcing a modern approach to measuring growth and performance. |
Early-Stage Strategic Initiatives | Q1 mentioned early-stage initiatives for System Integrators and Kafka Migration aimed at structured customer migration and channel expansion ( ); this topic was not mentioned in later quarters. | Q4 does not reference these initiatives. | The disappearance suggests a de‑emphasis or integration of these early-stage initiatives into broader strategies, potentially indicating maturation or deprioritization in public communications. |
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2025 Guidance & Growth Drivers
Q: What are you assuming with the initial guide for 2025?
A: Confluent is guiding for subscription revenue growth above consensus, underpinned by cloud business growth greater than 30%. Key drivers include adoption of DSP products, new offerings like Tableflow and WarpStream, and partnerships with Databricks and Jio. -
Confidence in Growth Trends
Q: What gives you confidence that growth trends will continue?
A: Confluent sees both qualitative and quantitative evidence, including massive open-source adoption of products like Connect and Flink, and increased customer demand for managed cloud offerings. They track consumption growth and have a strong pipeline. -
AI Use Cases for Streaming
Q: What are you seeing in terms of GenAI-related use cases for streaming and DSP technology?
A: Initially, customers used real-time ETL to get data for AI applications. Now, they're applying language models directly on streaming data to automate tasks and improve efficiency, which requires real-time data and makes Confluent's streaming technology particularly relevant. -
Databricks Partnership
Q: How does the partnership with Databricks benefit customers?
A: The partnership integrates Confluent's streaming data with Databricks' Delta format and Unity catalog, enabling real-time data availability for analytics and AI applications. This unifies streaming data across operational and analytics ecosystems. -
Go-to-Market Adjustments
Q: What adjustments are you making to the go-to-market model for 2025?
A: After last year's major transformations, this year involves minor tune-ups. Confluent is focusing on supporting use cases that consume DSP and integrating into analytics realms, such as the partnership with Databricks. -
Flink Progress
Q: Can you update us on Flink's progress and plans to drive momentum?
A: Confluent is pleased with Flink's progress, seeing significant maturity in the product and broad-based adoption. They remain equally bullish as they were last year. -
DSP Mix in Guidance
Q: What's assumed in the 2025 guidance around DSP and Flink mix?
A: DSP consumption grew substantially faster than the overall cloud business in Q4, accounting for approximately 13% of cloud revenue. Confluent expects DSP to be a material growth driver and increase throughout 2025. -
Sales Compensation Model Satisfaction
Q: How satisfied are you with the shift to compensating salespeople through consumption?
A: Confluent feels better aligned with how customers buy and track workloads. They view this as a growth driver over time and necessary to align with peers and new offerings. -
Growth of $1 Million Customers
Q: What's driving the growth of $1 million customers?
A: Efforts to accelerate customers from initial use case to large-scale platform adoption are paying off. DSP functionality, services, and partnerships help customers reach larger scale more quickly. The $100,000+ ARR customer cohort now contributes approximately 90% of subscription revenue. -
Market Environment and Trends
Q: How would you characterize Q4's market environment and consumption trends?
A: Confluent saw stability in the market and strong results. There's more certainty in budgets and spending, and they expect this stability to continue into 2025. -
Replacing Traditional Data Integration Vendors
Q: Are you winning more deals replacing traditional data integration vendors?
A: Yes, Confluent is increasingly displacing legacy integration technologies. With more complete products and out-of-the-box connectors, they can directly replace commercial batch workloads with better scalability and real-time capabilities. -
Stream Processing Market Outlook
Q: Does data gravity trends give you confidence that stream processing will be a bigger market over time?
A: Yes, Confluent believes it's a phenomenal setup for streaming. They feel they're in the very early innings, with a lot more growth ahead as workloads move into operational, continuous processing. -
Sales Productivity and Capacity
Q: Are you assuming higher sales productivity levels this year?
A: Confluent improved sales and marketing efficiency by roughly 6 percentage points in 2024. They have the capacity onboard to deliver on 2025 plans and will continue focusing on efficiency. -
WarpStream and Sales Cycles
Q: Could offering more deployment options like WarpStream lengthen sales cycles?
A: It's not a significant concern. Having excellent TCO and deployment stories for each option is essential, and Confluent feels very good about their full portfolio. -
Deferred Revenue Changes
Q: Why did long-term deferred revenue increase by $2 million sequentially?
A: There's not much to read into it. Changes in deferred revenue are driven by the timing of large multiyear Confluent Platform deals, and their consumption-first cloud approach doesn't emphasize large commits. -
Vertical Strength in AI Projects
Q: Are you seeing any particular vertical strength in AI-related projects?
A: Confluent has done well with dedicated AI companies and AI projects within existing industries. Customers like OpenAI and Cursor represent fast-growing clients excited to work with Confluent.
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